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Use of Averages
22-04-2017, 03:26 AM
Post: #1
Use of Averages
Am looking at ball draw averages as part of a selection process to determine if a ball is due to be drawn or not.

The first average calculated for each ball :

No of Draws / Times Drawn

The second one I am looking at is to use

Sum Of Draw Skips / Times Drawn

Am not sure which is the better one to use. Has anyone else done any research using averages.
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22-04-2017, 04:31 PM (This post was last modified: 22-04-2017 09:19 PM by Frank.)
Post: #2
RE: Use of Averages
I used to use average frequency, but that contains no useful live information about its frequency status today, it is stale information. Skip does provided you only use the last skip value.

Now I use both attributes, attained skip and attained fdiff to select likely candidates to be drawn.

Where attained skip = last skip value BEFORE it was last drawn.
fdiff = (last frequency before last drawn) - target frequency.

Where target frequency = (m x d)/n on that specific draw. So target freuency is a variable over the lottery history.

m = how many balls drawn in one draw
n = how many balls in the drum
d= the draw number.

so for a 649 lottery on draw number 100 target frequency= 6 x 100/49 = 12.24 , but I use the excel ROUND function to round to the nearest whole number. 12 in this case.

You can consider the after draw information for a ball to be a skip, fdiff pair.
For example for ball 4 in the UK 659 at the last drawing ball 4 was a 16,-1.

Once you have all the figures for all the balls over lottery history you can make a counting table to see how many of each type of pair there are.    

Im hoping Ive uploaded an image of a counting grid which shows the hot spots for skip,fdiff pairs. From that Ive determined the pair combinations of skip and fdiff to look for to be drawn next. 50% of drawn numbers are within the zones outlined in the image. This is a new system for me not yet proven, I'll let you know how I get on.
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23-04-2017, 02:51 AM (This post was last modified: 23-04-2017 02:51 AM by doug_w.)
Post: #3
RE: Use of Averages
Hi Frank thanks for replying.

Yes the image appears in your reply.

Can you explain the use of the Draw Number (d) in your calculation (m * d) / n

Is Draw Number the actual Draw Number or the Number of Times that a ball has been drawn.
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23-04-2017, 09:14 AM (This post was last modified: 23-04-2017 11:14 AM by Frank.)
Post: #4
RE: Use of Averages
It is the draw number. Every ball has a theoretical frequency based on how many draws have happened so far. The easiest to follow for a 749 would be target or theoretical frequency after 70 draws. If you draw 7 balls each time, then after 70 draws you've drawn 490 balls. There were 49 different balls involved over that period. So you divide by 49 to get the target. So it's a target frequency of 10 after 70 draws.

I just noticed that in that image the zone labels have slipped down below the arrows that should line up with them.
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23-04-2017, 12:03 PM
Post: #5
RE: Use of Averages
Thanks Frank I understand what you are talking about now. That is a different strategy than what I have been exploring. Will now add your way of doing it too. Hopefully I will help reduce the number of balls selected as possible picks for the next draw.

I really appreciate your replies and help.

Cheers Doug
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