Maureen's Thunderball Selections

[maureen1038]

I have decided to have a go at Thunderball with an online bookmaker; and I shall be playing "Pick One Main Number".

I shall choose 4 numbers each draw, and I shall place a bet of 50p on each of these numbers.

Today I have opened an account with the bookmaker, and I have deposited 10 into this account. I shall top it up with ?5 every Thursday.

As there are 3 draws every week, it will cost me 6 per week; so I shall need an occasional win to keep me going beyond five weeks! If one of my selected numbers is drawn as a Main Ball in the Thunderball draw, then 3 will be returned to my account.

Tomorrow (Fri 15 Nov 2013) is my first attempt, and these are the 4 numbers I have selected:

10 - 16 - 25 - 36

The balance in my account is now ?8.

[maureen1038]

Not a very propitious start, but I'll keep plodding on.

My selections for tonight's draw (Sat 16 Nov) are:

1 - 21 - 25 - 38

The balance in my account is now 6.

[Frank]

Thank you for posting your numbers Maureen. It should prove interesting to Thunderball players to see how you get on.

[maureen1038]

I've never been any good at choosing winning lottery numbers.

My selections for tonight (Wed 20 Nov) are:

13 - 15 - 25 - 33

The balance in my account is now 4.

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I'm wondering if I would have more chance of turning my 2 into 3 if I played two lines of Thunderball with Camelot.

But I don't really know how to work out odds/chances etc; so I cannot make a comparison.

[Frank]

Tell us which bookmaker you are using, then I can tell you the odds for "Pick One Main Number". Should be easy to compare with Camelot where the odds of winning any prize are 1 in 13, but you have to pay at least a 1 for a line.

[maureen1038]

Thanks, Frank.

I am using Betfred. I don't know if any other bookies do the Thunderball lottery.

[Frank]

Right Maureen, in interesting comparison. Betfred say their fixed odds for pick one are 5 to 1. However, you say that if you win for a 50p stake you win 3. This means they must be returning your 50p stake plus your 2.50 win.
The REAL odds against getting a pick one right in Thunderball are 6.8 to 1, in other words you have one chance in 7.8 of winning 3

This means that the 2 you spand at Betfred give you four chances in 7.8 to win 3. So your chances of winning are roughly 50/50.

Over 1000 draws you would spend 2000 and you would win 1500, assuming just luck and no special skill.

If you were to play Thunderball at 1 per line, you have about a one in 13 chance of a prize of at least 3. Playing 2 lines you have 2 chances in 13 of winning at least 3.

Over 1000 draws you would spend 2000 and stand a chance of winning at least 1000. Remember that you could win a prize of any value during this time, up to a value of 500,000 .

So you could become rich playing Thunderball, or expect to lose half your money over time. Compare that with never becoming rich with Betfred, but definitely losing a quarter of your money, unless you have a skill that beats the odds.

[maureen1038]

Thank you, Frank. You have explained that very clearly.

What seems to be certain is that I do not have a skill that beats the odds. Another losing night last Wednesday.

And I have been mulling over this for so long that I have forgotten to play the Friday night Thunderball draw.

[maureen1038]

I've bought 2 Thunderball tickets for tonight's draw (Sat 23 Nov) :-

06 - 14 - 23 - 26 - 39 Thunderball 12
02 - 03 - 05 - 07 - 36 Thunderball 04

If I had stayed with the online bookmaker, I would have chosen the 4 emboldened numbers.