+- Forums (http://lottopost.co.uk/forum)
+-- Forum: Lottery Tip's (/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: Lotto Tips & Strategies (/forumdisplay.php?fid=15)
+--- Thread: How do you predict something that's random? (/showthread.php?tid=2275)
How do you predict something that's random? - ragnorak - 03-05-2016 11:53 AM
The lottery is obviously completely random - this means it's possible for any combination of numbers to emerge, the same way as it's possible for a roulette ball to land on any number in any given spin. But those of us on this forum intuitively believe that there is order hidden within the chaos - that patterns and 'rules' within the randomness exist. We attempt to better grasp this elusive knowledge, in the hope of at least giving ourselves an 'edge' over the layman lottery player.
A common basic strategy, of which there are many variations, is to look for occurrences that are overdue. It could be a number that hasn't appeared for the best part of a year, or a pair of numbers that hasn't appeared for many years, or something slightly more complex like expecting 2 numbers in the forties because that hasn't happened for a while. Sceptics call this "gambler's fallacy" - they say that the draw machine or roulette wheel or whatever has no memory, and thus it cannot apply the logic that we are deducing from our analysis.
And yet, everything we see from looking at the big picture tells us there ARE rules that are always proven true over a long enough period of time. If something is possible and you wait long enough for it, it will happen, provided nothing happens in the meantime to render that thing impossible. The same sceptics themselves who use the term "gambler's fallacy" will also tell you that because the lottery is random then every possible combination of numbers will eventually come up given an infinite number of draws - which contradicts their own argument about the draw equipment having no memory to implement such 'rules'.
But what they say in that regard remains true - draw machines do not think, or remember what numbers came before. Anything is possible, even the same set of 6 numbers repeating from one draw to the next. Anything is possible, machines do not have a memory, and yet at the same time we know intuitively that there is order within the chaos.
At this point, it's worth realising that gambling games aren't the only examples of randomness - far from it. The universe itself is random. The physical laws that govern the universe are 'just right' for the development of life. Relatively small changes in certain parameters would make it uninhabitable by the likes of us and we wouldn't be here. If you put aside the somewhat far-fetched theory that there are in fact multiple universes, and this just happens to be a rare universe that is habitable, then that means the 'randomness' that formed the laws of physics to which we owe our very existence was also working to some kind of rules.
So in the end, it comes down to your fundamental beliefs - is there meaning to life, to creation, to art and music, to anything? Or is it all just a random mess that had the fortunate effect of granting us an enjoyable and beautiful yet accidental existence? What do you think?
Anyway, all of that was really just a preamble to what this topic is actually about, and that's a new way of thinking in regards to making predictions. If there is some cosmic force that prevents numbers and other events from becoming infinitely overdue, then what is to say that it won't also have other effects? In my mind, this 'guiding force' or GF as I call it exists to 'fill in the gaps', and operates at various levels of efficiency at different times. When a number is very overdue, then that is actually an example of the GF working at a low level of efficiency in that area. Likewise, if a number has been appearing a lot, that doesn't mean it will continue to and also is an instance of inefficency.
Now, I'm not saying we should totally disregard overdue occurrences - we know they have to come at some point, and so are well worth bearing in mind. But what about when the GF is working at a peak level of efficiency? This is something I noticed during recent months while studying randomness within soccer results. Yes, football. A lot of people don't realise this, but there is a high degree of randomness that goes into the number of goals scored. Sure, the relative skills and playing styles of the teams and the players are strong factors, but goal-scoring opportunities are still pretty much random occurrences, as are actual goals. So I went into it trying to use the same strategy as we might use for the lottery - looking for overdue scorelines or match goal totals for various teams. I had some success with this strategy, but it also suffered from the same limitations - it could be easy to underestimate how overdue something would become, and have to wait too long for it to happen.
Then, something else came to my attention. I noticed time and time again, that I would spot a perfect sequence of goal totals - not usually in numerical order, but neatly filling in all gaps with maximum efficiency. I'll give an example of what I mean. Here are a set of most recent results from the Paraguayan team Sol de America (source: uk.soccerway.com):
Fri 29/01/16 DIP Sol de América 0 - 1 River Plate
Thu 04/02/16 DIP Libertad 1 - 2 Sol de América
Mon 08/02/16 DIP Sol de América 4 - 3 Nacional Asunción
Sun 14/02/16 DIP Deportivo Capiatá 1 - 1 Sol de América
Sat 20/02/16 DIP Sol de América 3 - 1 General DÃaz
Sun 28/02/16 DIP Cerro Porteño 1 - 4 Sol de América
What do you notice about these scores? Well, try counting the goals in each one. The totals are 1, 3, 7, 2, 4, 5. Now, which number is missing from that unordered sequence? I'm sure you can see the missing number is 6. So, what do you think the result was in the next match?
Thu 03/03/16 DIP Sol de América 3 - 3 Sportivo Luqueño
Yup, 6 goals. I'm showing this example as it is one I actually spotted at the stage BEFORE the match with 6 goals took place, and I even watched the match to see what would happen. When it was 5 minutes to half-time and no goals had been scored, I thought it was probably going to be wrong. Then, two goals came in quick succession and it again had a chance. The second half started slowly again but a flurry of goals brought the total to 6, to my amazement. Now I say amazement, but this is far from the first time I've seen such an indicator fulfilled. It just never ceases to amaze me, that's all. More intriguingly, 6 goals is not a usual result in football - the odds are against it. But it happened because it was supposed to. The fact that there had already been a result with 7 goals previously, creating a gap, meant that was a gap to be filled in.
It is also an example of the GF operating at peak efficiency. Now, you have to look at a LOT of different teams' recent results to find a situation where such an efficient sequence is emerging. The perfect time to come in is where there is just one or perhaps two goal totals results remaining to complete a perfect sequence - remember what we are doing here is judging the efficiency and taking advantage of the situation. Obviously, it doesn't work every time - there would be something wrong if it did. But it works often enough, and with unlikely enough high-odds results, that it is definitely a strategy worth following in my view. I call this technique the Omega Protocol, or simply Omega - because what we are looking for ideally is the final or 'omega' result in the sequence.
Now with this insight into randomness, an obvious question is how can it be applied to the lottery? In football, the range of total goals that are feasible in most matches is 0 through to 7. With the lottery, it is somewhat more complex. Sum-totals may be a good starting point, but with a much greater range it is unlikely we will see effeciency great enough to pinpoint a precise sum. Perhaps if the sum is boiled down to its numerical element, for example 187 becomes 1+8+7 =16 = 1+6 = 7 then we may have a chance of seeing omega-level efficiency at some stage, but even then it will (if successful) only reduce the odds down to about 10% of the 45,000,000+ possibilities, which is still overwhelming enough.
I welcome any thoughts on this approach.
RE: How do you predict something that's random? - ragnorak - 03-05-2016 03:00 PM
Here is one football match today where the Omega Protocol applies:
Swansea City vs. Norwich City at 3pm
Looking at their six most recent head-to-head results, the goal totals are as follows (from oldest to newest): 5, 7, 4, 2, 3, 1. So the omega number appears to once again be 6, though I would also account for the possibility of 0 goals in case an even longer sequence is on the cards. Let's see if it will work this time.
RE: How do you predict something that's random? - ragnorak - 03-06-2016 03:39 AM
Ok, no dice with that one as there was 1 goal by the end which broke the sequence. When I have another one that looks particularly interesting I'll post it in this thread. Ideally I'd like to build my own database of results from various leagues so I can write a script to search for things like overdue goal totals and emerging omega sequences, this is something I may do soon as I'm sure there's a lot I'm missing by manually checking various teams.
RE: How do you predict something that's random? - ragnorak - 03-08-2016 05:13 PM
Here's one for tonight:
Blackburn Rovers vs. Birmingham City
Recent goal totals in the head-to-head from oldest to latest: 2, 5, 6, 1, 4, 0. The missing number to complete the sequence is 3.
An interesting note though is that the goal totals 4 and 5 are a combined eight times overdue in Birmingham City matches... So it's a case of omega vs overdue numbers.
In the past, I've found that omega wins out in these situations, but let's see what happens tonight.