Catchalotto - Printable Version

Catchalotto - Printable Version

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RE: Catchalotto - Frank - 11-28-2009 09:11 AM

The curious thing about the Bulgarian repeat is that it was a direct repeat in consecutive draws, which depending on how you look at it has different probabilities. The mathematics of repeats above is not for consecutive repeats, but for any repeat from any draw to any another. In one sense it supports the figures because it was a repeat (if you are asking the question what is the probability of a repeat in the period draw 1 to present) but if you ask the question what is the probability of a consecutive repeat, thats a different question with a different answer. Icon_cool

Out of interest one can read off from the curve the probability of a lotto result NOT repeating, hence (by subtracting from 100%) the probability of at least one repeat over N draws.

[Image: f0nalg.jpg]

Interesting points are :-
15% at 2132 draws
20% at 2500 draws
33.33% at 3370 draws
50% at 4404 draws

A 15% chance of a repeat result is not insignificant, and is only a couple of years away. Nerd

RE: Catchalotto - ido - 11-28-2009 09:37 PM

(11-28-2009 01:26 AM)Frank Wrote:
Quote:"Birthday problem", can you expand on that?

Sure ........what is the minumum number of people in a room before there is a 50% chance of 2 people sharing the same birthday ?

http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.birthdayprob.html

Enjoy !

Edit:-

The answer is 23 which is unbelivably small because the more people there are in the room, the more multiple comparisons (person to other person) are taking place.

If instead of comparing birthdays, each had a ticket in their pocket with a number 1 to 365 and they compared those, the problem would be the same, with the same result.

Now expand the ticket to a number between 1 and 13,983,816. How many people need to be in the room until the probability that 2 numbers matched was more than 50% ? Like I said its 4404 (50.01%).

Hi Frank&Catchalotto,

..."what is the minumum number of people in a room before there is a 50% chance of 2 people sharing the same birthday ?...."

surptisingly my automatic mental replay was (only)two twins ever give 100%!!!
The funny thing is that after some time every player by acumulating
his experience starts mentaly seriosly to consider the twins problem in it's two main aspects - everithing may happen &ever is possible something very probable not to happen.

Welcome

RE: Catchalotto - Frank - 11-29-2009 12:03 AM

(11-28-2009 09:37 PM)ido Wrote: Hi Frank&Catchalotto,

..."what is the minumum number of people in a room before there is a 50% chance of 2 people sharing the same birthday ?...."

surptisingly my automatic mental replay was (only)two twins ever give 100%!!!
The funny thing is that after some time every player by acumulating
his experience starts mentaly seriosly to consider the twins problem in it's two main aspects - everithing may happen &ever is possible something very probable not to happen.

Well we were not interested in the YEAR of birth , just the day and month, so you don't need twins to have a birthday match. Nerd

Incidentally, to get back to the BUlgarian Lottery repeat, I just read that its actually a 6/42 lottery which means that the chances of an ordinary repeat (not consecutive) is better than 50% after only 2697 draws in a 6/42 lotto. I cant get hold of all the past Bulgarian results for the tantaliser as the site is in Bulgarian and Google can't find anything. I'm pretty sure that if the lottery has been running as long as 50 years at twice a week, then there are certain be other instances of results repeating non consecutively, if its 6/42. Icon_smile

RE: Catchalotto - ido - 11-30-2009 05:32 AM

(11-29-2009 12:03 AM)Frank Wrote: Incidentally, to get back to the BUlgarian Lottery repeat, I just read that its actually a 6/42 lottery which means that the chances of an ordinary repeat (not consecutive) is better than 50% after only 2697 draws in a 6/42 lotto. I cant get hold of all the past Bulgarian results for the tantaliser as the site is in Bulgarian and Google can't find anything. I'm pretty sure that if the lottery has been running as long as 50 years at twice a week, then there are certain be other instances of results repeating non consecutively, if its 6/42.

Hi Frank;
I'm absolutely convicted that you shouldn't became a lotteryholik again
so fastly after Fuenteventura but if the bulgarian draw history is the thing
will make you happy I'm "your man":
The link leads you to the data ,"??????? ?? ??????????" leteraly means
"Draw History", there is not date information ,the first left number is the number of the week.

http://www.toto.bg/index.php?lang=1&pid=6&sid=36

note:none of the three games is an Bulgarian National Lottery but
"on totalizator" &fixed highest prize

The Bulgarian National Lottery was(I do not know recently anything about) organised by ready to sell tickets supplied to "2 leters serie"
and a number of 8-10 or 12 digits.The draw consisted of automatical
random(????????? Icon_eek

) drawing of that numbers on
live TV program(how it was before the TV I'v never asked me).
The "6/42 fluker" exists from the last months of 1995.

Welcome

RE: Catchalotto - Frank - 11-30-2009 05:55 AM

Thanks Ido but when I look at the middle lottery, presumably the 6/42 it starts off with 2 columns in 1995 but then has 3 columns. Only the first column has a draw number on it. I am confused - how many draws are they having on the same day ? Are they different draws in different machines? are they on different days ? I dont understand the table. Bonk

RE: Catchalotto - ido - 11-30-2009 06:17 AM

(11-30-2009 05:55 AM)Frank Wrote: Thanks Ido but when I look at the middle lottery, presumably the 6/42 it starts off with 2 columns in 1995 but then has 3 columns. Only the first column has a draw number on it. I am confused - how many draws are they having on the same day ? Are they different draws in different machines? are they on different days ? I dont understand the table.

Firstly two and recently 3 draws take plase consecutively.Same machine
is charged automaticaly again for the next draw(all white balls,black numbers stamped).
The more recent third draw is supplemental "bonus draw" -can win only if 5+1 or 6 numbers right,there is a jakpot accumulation for any single draw too.
They are factualy named like this -1st draw ,second draw and the Supplemental draw.

(a few weeks ago the jakpot of the 3rd draw of 5/35 was over 1,5 milion
euro - not bad if think honestly)

(11-29-2009 12:03 AM)Frank Wrote: Incidentally, to get back to the BUlgarian Lottery repeat, I just read that its actually a 6/42 lottery which means that the chances of an ordinary repeat (not consecutive) is better than 50% after only 2697 draws in a 6/42 lotto. I cant get hold of all the past Bulgarian results for the tantaliser as the site is in Bulgarian and Google can't find anything. I'm pretty sure that if the lottery has been running as long as 50 years at twice a week, then there are certain be other instances of results repeating non consecutively, if its 6/42.

Seems quite interesting ,like the so called periodical hypper frequence
as all the 3 draws after the week 72 th are sighned of repeats -may this
realy happen or my "dirty fluke theory my be right"? Curse

RE: Catchalotto - Frank - 12-01-2009 04:49 AM

(11-30-2009 06:17 AM)ido Wrote: Seems quite interesting ,like the so called periodical hypper frequence
as all the 3 draws after the week 72 th are sighned of repeats -may this
realy happen or my "dirty fluke theory my be right"?

Well I've processed al the results since toto started and guess what ? I was right Ylsuper

There have been 4059 draws in this 6/42 lotto and I predicted that there would be many repeats especially after 2697 draws. The first repeat happenned after 3018 draws

15,19,21,31,39,42 repeated in col B in year 2006 after first appearing in 1997 draw 72 col A.

Then in 2008 draw 17 (A) 8,9,12,23,36,38 repeated after first appearing in 1999 draw 79 (A)

Then in 2008 draw 45 ( C ) 1,7,9,13,18,39 was drawn again after first appearing in 2000 draw 15 (B)

Then in 2009 draw 37 (A) 10,12,15,23,30,36 reappeared after having been previously drawn in 2004 draw 4(A)

And finally as we know, 4,15,23,24,35,42 was drawn consecutively in 2009 draws 73 and 74 ( C )

FIVE repeats and (more to the point) , a lot more match 5's missed by not including the old results in the shortlist.

So Ido and Catchalotto, point proven. Lottery results can repeat and moreover you can predict when that is likely to begin. Nerd

RE: Catchalotto - Walton - 09-29-2010 10:27 PM

Yes, they were all drawn sometime in the past. But this is not the common factor that we're after.

Ok, so the clue is in the picture. From Lottorino point of view, these combinations stand out from other drawn lotto combinations in that they all have the biggest out-of-sync standard deviations. If you look closely, you will see that the first two combinations have numbers too close to each other, or put differently the deviation or spread of its numbers from average is very small. 1;4;7;44;47;48 combination has a big gap in the middle boosting its standard deviation high. These are the only combinations in the entire UK National Lottery history that scored a 3